FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 08 November 2026
Sunderland 1–0 ChelseaMatch recap · Sunday, 08 November 2026
How Bawler's pick did
Bawler's pickLost
Chelsea or Draw✗
Chelsea Over 9.5 Shots✓
Cole Palmer 2+ Shots✗
Logged before kickoff, settled from the final stats. Bawler's pick record →
Pre-match probability vs result
Sunderland win
29%
Result
Draw
26%
Chelsea win
45%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.6
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.5 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.