FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Jagiellonia Bialystok 3–1 Ararat-ArmeniaMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Jagiellonia Bialystok to win at 66%. Bawler had Jagiellonia Bialystok at 66%, the draw at 20% and Ararat-Armenia at 14%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Jagiellonia Bialystok win
66%
Result
Draw
20%
Ararat-Armenia win
14%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 0.9
Total 3.1
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Jagiellonia Bialystok to win
Pre-match: 66%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.