Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo FC
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 74% probability because both sides project evenly with combined xG of 2.81, creating consistent attacking threat despite Houston's marginal 39% win edge.
Sporting Kansas CitystepHouston Dynamo FCSporting Kansas City average 5.8 corners per game at home this season (22 competitive matches). Houston Dynamo average 4.1 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
More predictions for these teams
Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Sporting Kansas City and Houston Dynamo — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Sporting Kansas City 30% · draw 31% · Houston Dynamo 39%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
Sporting Kansas City 0–2 Houston Dynamo FCModel estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.