Our combination for this match
3 legs · built by the modelTeam stats
What we expect from each side, next to how they have been doing lately.
Each card is drawn on one scale, so the two bars are directly comparable. “Above recent” means our forecast is higher than their average over the last six.
Match odds
How likely the big moments are, and what they add up to.
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time. A longer bar means more likely.
Our numbers, most likely first
Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
In plain English
Sparta Rotterdam should get at least a draw here. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Fortuna Sittard, and Fortuna Sittard have not beaten them in their last five meetings. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Sparta Rotterdam or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 76%
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Bawler's model rates this match: Sparta Rotterdam are favoured (51% win probability vs 24% for Fortuna Sittard, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 Fortuna Sittard (11.4% probability). Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Sparta Rotterdam 51%, the draw 25% and Fortuna Sittard 24%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 58% chance. That is based on Sparta Rotterdam expecting 1.80 goals and Fortuna Sittard 1.18.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 57%.