FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Go Ahead Eagles 3–3 Sparta RotterdamMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Go Ahead Eagles or draw at 71%. Bawler had Go Ahead Eagles at 47%, the draw at 24% and Sparta Rotterdam at 29%. The match finished 3–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Go Ahead Eagles win
47%
Draw
24%
Result
Sparta Rotterdam win
29%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.5
Total 3.3
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+2.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 2.0
From the match itself
The match produced 2.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Medium confidence
Go Ahead Eagles or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.