Southampton vs Stoke City prediction — Championship · Sat 22 Aug · 15:00 UK

Championship · Sat 22 Aug · 15:00 UK
Southampton 61Draw 23Stoke City 16
The call
84%
Southampton or draw
2.9
Goals expected
Full time
Final 3–1

How it finished

Southampton beat Stoke City 3–1. Bawler's model had Southampton in front at 61% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 4. Southampton had 18 shots (5 on target) to Stoke City's 14 (2), with 58% of the ball against 42%. Expected goals finished 2.6 to 0.7.

SouthamptonFull-time statsStoke City
58%Possession42%
2.6Expected goals (xG)0.7
18Shots14
5Shots on target2
11Shots inside box11
3Big chances1
4Corners2
1Saves2
10Fouls21
2Offsides2
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards1
What we publishedBeforeAfter
ResultSouthampton 61%Southampton (61% called)
Total goals2.94
Both teams to score51%Yes
Model call1X 84%Landed
Second callOver 2.5 Goals 54%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

MarketProbability
Southampton to score86%
Over 1.5 goals78%
Under 3.5 goals68%

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)+1.0 / match
Head-to-head, last 5SOU 3 · D 0 · STO 2
Opponent strength indexUpper mid

Head to head

Jan 2026Stoke City 0–2 Southampton
Aug 2025Southampton 1–2 Stoke City
Oct 2024Southampton 3–2 Stoke City
Apr 2024Southampton 0–1 Stoke City
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Southampton vs Stoke City?

Southampton beat Stoke City 3–1. Bawler's model had Southampton in front at 61% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 4. Southampton had 18 shots (5 on target) to Stoke City's 14 (2), with 58% of the ball against 42%. Expected goals finished 2.6 to 0.7.

What was the final score in Southampton vs Stoke City?

Southampton 3–1 Stoke City, played on 22 Aug 2026 in the ENGLAND: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Southampton 61%, the draw 23% and Stoke City 16%.

What were the stats in Southampton vs Stoke City?

Full-time: Possession 58%–42%, Expected goals (xG) 2.6–0.7, Shots 18–14, Shots on target 5–2, Shots inside box 11–11, Big chances 3–1, Corners 4–2, Saves 1–2, Fouls 10–21, Offsides 2–2, Yellow cards 3–5, Red cards 0–1.

Did both teams score in Southampton vs Stoke City?

Yes — both Southampton and Stoke City scored, finishing 3–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 51% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Southampton vs Stoke City right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said Southampton 61%, it finished Southampton (61% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 51%, it finished Yes; Model call — we said 1X 84%, it finished Landed; Second call — we said Over 2.5 Goals 54%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

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