FT · ENGLAND: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Southampton 1–4 West Ham UnitedMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Southampton at 31%, draw at 26%, West Ham United at 43%. The match ended 1-4 — confirming the model's lean toward West Ham United.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Southampton win
31%
Draw
26%
United win
43%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.36 – 1.62
Total 2.98
Actual
1 – 4
Total 5 (+2.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost