FT · ENGLAND: EFL Cup · Saturday, 08 August 2026
Colchester United 0–2 SouthamptonMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 08 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Colchester United at 40%, draw at 28%, Southampton at 32%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-2. The model's headline call was Colchester United to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
United win
40%
Draw
28%
Southampton win
32%
Actual ✓
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Colchester United or Draw
Pre-match: 68%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Under 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
No result
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost