Match prediction·EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification·Tuesday 11 Aug, 18:30 UTC

SK Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahce

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
30.7% home40.0% draw29.3% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
SK Sturm GrazstepFenerbahce
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Fenerbahçe average 6.1 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Under 2.5 goals
87%
SK Sturm Graz or draw
51%
Draw
27%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

SK Sturm Graz fixtures & form →Fenerbahce fixtures & form →

SK Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahce — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 5 August 2026, SK Sturm Graz have won 0, Fenerbahce have won 1, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
5 August 2026Fenerbahce 2–0 SK Sturm GrazEurope: Champions League - Qualification

The model's verdict for this fixture: SK Sturm Graz 31% · draw 40% · Fenerbahce 29%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

SK Sturm Graz predictions & form →Fenerbahce predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
⚡ Full-time recap available
SK Sturm Graz 0–1 Fenerbahce
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.