What we expect
In plain English
VfB Stuttgart are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have won four of their last six, and SC Paderborn 07 have not beaten them in their last three meetings. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
VfB Stuttgart or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Bawler's model rates this match: VfB Stuttgart are favoured (46% win probability vs 29% for SC Paderborn 07, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is SC Paderborn 07 1-1 VfB Stuttgart (11.5% probability). Expected total goals: 3.04.
How does Bawler predict SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives SC Paderborn 07 29%, the draw 25% and VfB Stuttgart 46%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart?
BTTS: Yes (60% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.33 and away expected goals 1.71.
Over or under 2.5 goals in SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.04. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).