Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelNapoli on top, and Scott McTominay getting plenty of shots away.
Sassuolo v Napoli prediction
Napoli are favourites on our numbers: 49% to win, against 26% for Sassuolo and 25% for a draw. If you want one score, our predicted score is Sassuolo 1–2 Napoli, the most likely Napoli win (9%). We expect 3.0 goals in total: 1.2 for Sassuolo and 1.8 for Napoli. Both teams scoring is 58% and three or more goals is 57%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Sassuolo have won none, Napoli five. When they last met, it finished Napoli 1–0 Sassuolo, in Jan 2026. Of the players, Scott McTominay of Napoli tops our shots forecast at 3.1, if they start. Domenico Berardi (Sassuolo) leads for shots on target, at 0.9. For cards, Domenico Berardi (Sassuolo) has been booked once every 2 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here.
Sassuolo come in with no wins, one draw and five defeats in their last six. Napoli have two wins, two draws and two defeats over the same run. On shots, our forecast is 11.0 for Sassuolo and 16.1 for Napoli, with 3.8 and 5.3 on target, and corners at 3.6 to 5.6. So we expect Napoli to do more of the shooting. Bawler's pick for this game is Napoli or Draw, Napoli Over 11.5 Shots and Scott McTominay 2+ Shots. Our model gives all three landing together a 50% chance, which makes the fair price Evens (1.99).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Sassuolo · last 6
Napoli · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Napoli or draw is 74% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Serie A table →Common questions
Who will win Sassuolo vs Napoli?
Bawler's model rates this match: Napoli are favoured (49% win probability vs 26% for Sassuolo, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Sassuolo vs Napoli?
Bawler's predicted score is Sassuolo 1-2 Napoli: the most likely score if Napoli win, which is the likeliest result (49%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.5%. Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Sassuolo vs Napoli?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Sassuolo 26%, the draw 25% and Napoli 49%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Napoli?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 58% chance. That is based on Sassuolo expecting 1.22 goals and Napoli 1.76.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Sassuolo vs Napoli?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 57%.
When are the Sassuolo v Napoli line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Sassuolo v Napoli?
Napoli or Draw (74%), Napoli Over 11.5 Shots (82%), Scott McTominay 2+ Shots (76%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 50% chance, a fair price of Evens (1.99). 18+, please gamble responsibly.