Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelAn open game: both sides to score, with Armand Laurienté and Junior Messias both getting shots away.
Sassuolo v Genoa prediction
There is little between the sides in this Serie A game. Genoa edge it at 37%, Sassuolo are 36% and a draw is 27%. If you want one score, our predicted score is Sassuolo 0–1 Genoa, the most likely Genoa win (9%). We expect 2.7 goals in total: 1.4 for Sassuolo and 1.4 for Genoa. Both sides are more likely than not to score (55%) and three or more goals is 51%.
Sassuolo come in with no wins, one draw and five defeats in their last six. Genoa have four wins, no draws and two defeats over the same run. We expect Sassuolo to have 12.8 shots (4.2 on target) and Genoa 13.5 (4.3 on target), and corners at 4.4 to 4.3.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Sassuolo have won none, Genoa four, and one was drawn. The last meeting ended Genoa 2–1 Sassuolo, in Apr 2026. Domenico Berardi of Sassuolo is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026/27. Bawler's pick combines Both Teams to Score, Over 21.5 Total Shots, Armand Laurienté 1+ Shot and Junior Messias 1+ Shot. We make the chance of all four coming in 43%, a fair price of 11/8 (2.33).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Sassuolo · last 6
Genoa · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Genoa or draw is 64% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Serie A table →Common questions
Who will win Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Bawler's model rates this match: Genoa are favoured (37% win probability vs 36% for Sassuolo, 27% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Bawler's predicted score is Sassuolo 0-1 Genoa: the most likely score if Genoa win, which is the likeliest result (37%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.8%. Expected total goals: 2.7.
How does Bawler predict Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Sassuolo 36%, the draw 27% and Genoa 37%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 55% chance. That is based on Sassuolo expecting 1.35 goals and Genoa 1.37.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Bawler's model expects 2.7 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 51%.
When are the Sassuolo v Genoa line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Sassuolo v Genoa?
Both Teams to Score (55%), Over 21.5 Total Shots (79%), Armand Laurienté 1+ Shot (89%), Junior Messias 1+ Shot (87%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 43% chance, a fair price of 11/8 (2.33). 18+, please gamble responsibly.