What we expect
In plain English
Republic of Ireland are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Israel. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
Republic of Ireland to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Republic of Ireland vs Israel?
Bawler's model rates this match: Republic of Ireland are favoured (72% win probability vs 11% for Israel, 17% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Republic of Ireland vs Israel?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Republic of Ireland 2-0 Israel (10.5% probability). Expected total goals: 3.37.
How does Bawler predict Republic of Ireland vs Israel?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Republic of Ireland 72%, the draw 17% and Israel 11%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Republic of Ireland vs Israel?
BTTS: Yes (54% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.49 and away expected goals 0.89.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Republic of Ireland vs Israel?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.37. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).