FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Thursday, 24 September 2026

Austria 3–1 IsraelMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 24 September 2026

Austria
3–1
Austria win
Israel
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Austria at 85%, draw at 11%, Israel at 5%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Austria.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Austria win
85%
Actual ✓
Draw
11%
Israel win
5%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
3.19 – 0.69
Total 3.88
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.1 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 85%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Austria's home advantage and Marcel Sabitzer's creative output underpin the 85% win forecast, with the hosts' 3.2 xG dwarfing Israel's 0.7."

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