Israel 0–3 Republic of IrelandMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 27 September 2026

0–3

Republic of Ireland win

Republic of Ireland

> 🧠 Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Israel at 22%, draw at 24%, Republic of Ireland at 55%. The match ended 0-3 — confirming the model's lean toward Republic of Ireland.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Israel win

22%

Draw

24%

Ireland win

55%

Actual ✓

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.14 – 1.91

Total 3.05

Actual

0 – 3

Total 3 (-0.1 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 81%

✓ Won

Medium confidence

Away Win

Pre-match: 55%

✓ Won

Outside shot

Over 3.5 Goals

Pre-match: 37%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast here, with Ireland's 0.66 xG advantage and 52% win probability signaling sustained attacking pressure that Israel's 1.23 expected output cannot fully contain."

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