Kosovo 1–0 Republic of IrelandMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 24 September 2026

1–0

Kosovo win

Republic of Ireland

> 🧠 Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Kosovo at 48%, draw at 26%, Republic of Ireland at 26%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Kosovo.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Kosovo win

48%

Actual ✓

Draw

26%

Ireland win

26%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.67 – 1.18

Total 2.85

Actual

1 – 0

Total 1 (-1.8 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 78%

✗ Lost

Medium confidence

Over 2.5 Goals

Pre-match: 54%

✗ Lost

Outside shot

Draw

Pre-match: 26%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast (78%), anchored by Kosovo's 0.49 xG advantage and 48% win probability that should translate to an open, attacking contest."

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