FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Thursday, 01 October 2026

Israel 0–0 KosovoMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 01 October 2026

Israel
0–0
Draw
Kosovo

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Kosovo to win at 64%. Bawler had Israel at 15%, the draw at 21% and Kosovo at 64%. The match finished 0–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Israel win
15%
Draw
21%
Result
Kosovo win
64%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
0.9 – 2.1
Total 3.1
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−3.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 0.7
From the match itself

The match produced 3.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Kosovo to win
Pre-match: 64%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Kosovo's away win forecast rests on a decisive 1.14 expected-goals advantage, reflecting their superior chance creation in a matchup where the model gives them a 63% win probability."

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