FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Sunday, 04 October 2026

Republic of Ireland 1–1 IsraelMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 04 October 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Republic of Ireland to win at 75%. Bawler had Republic of Ireland at 75%, the draw at 17% and Israel at 8%. The match finished 1–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Republic of Ireland win
75%
Draw
17%
Result
Israel win
8%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.4 – 0.7
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 0.8
From the match itself

The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Republic of Ireland to win
Pre-match: 75%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Ireland's dominant expected-goals advantage of 1.70 makes a home win the model's high-confidence call at 75% probability."

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