Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelReal Sociedad on top, and Orri Óskarsson getting plenty of shots away.
Real Sociedad v Sevilla prediction
Real Sociedad are favourites on our numbers: 51% to win, against 25% for Sevilla and 25% for a draw. Our predicted score is Real Sociedad 2–1 Sevilla, the likeliest Real Sociedad win score (10%). We expect 3.0 goals in total: 1.8 for Real Sociedad and 1.2 for Sevilla. Both teams scoring is 58% and three or more goals is 57%.
On shots, our forecast is 14.3 for Real Sociedad and 11.7 for Sevilla, with 5.7 and 3.5 on target, and corners at 6.1 to 3.9. Orri Óskarsson is the player we expect to shoot most: 3.0 shots and 1.4 on target for Real Sociedad, if they start. For cards, Peque Fernández (Sevilla) has been booked about once a game in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Real Sociedad have won two, Sevilla three. When they last met, it finished Sevilla 1–0 Real Sociedad, in May 2026. In their last six games Real Sociedad have four wins, one draw and one defeat, while Sevilla have two wins, two draws and two defeats. Real Sociedad won their most recent match and Sevilla drew theirs. Bawler's pick combines Real Sociedad or Draw, Real Sociedad Over 10.5 Shots and Orri Óskarsson 2+ Shots. We make the chance of all three coming in 48%, a fair price of 11/10 (2.09).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Real Sociedad · last 6
Sevilla · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Real Sociedad or draw is 75% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
LaLiga table →Common questions
Who will win Real Sociedad vs Sevilla?
Bawler's model rates this match: Real Sociedad are favoured (51% win probability vs 25% for Sevilla, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Real Sociedad vs Sevilla?
Bawler's predicted score is Real Sociedad 2-1 Sevilla: the most likely score if Real Sociedad win, which is the likeliest result (51%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.5%. Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Real Sociedad vs Sevilla?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Real Sociedad 51%, the draw 25% and Sevilla 25%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Sevilla?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 58% chance. That is based on Real Sociedad expecting 1.78 goals and Sevilla 1.19.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Real Sociedad vs Sevilla?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 57%.
When are the Real Sociedad v Sevilla line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Real Sociedad v Sevilla?
Real Sociedad or Draw (75%), Real Sociedad Over 10.5 Shots (78%), Orri Óskarsson 2+ Shots (75%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 48% chance, a fair price of 11/10 (2.09). 18+, please gamble responsibly.