Spain: La LigaSunday 30 Aug, 15:00 UTC

Real Madrid vMálaga

Most likely scoreline
2–1
10% of the time · 3.24 goals expected
Real Madrid 60%Draw 24%Málaga 16%
How we get there
Real MadridstepMálaga
2.17Base xG · rolling 26-match1.07
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.17Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.07

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Real Madrid average 6.8 corners per game at home this season (25 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
4
2
1
1
9
9
5
2
2
9
10
5
2
1
3
7
7
4
1
4
4
4
2
1
5
2
2
1
6
1
1
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Real Madrid fixtures & form →Málaga fixtures & form →

Real Madrid vs Málaga — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Real Madrid and Málaga — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Real Madrid 60% · draw 24% · Málaga 16%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Real Madrid predictions & form →Málaga predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.