FT · Europe: Champions League · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Real Madrid 2–1 InternazionaleMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Real Madrid at 48%, draw at 23%, Internazionale at 29%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Real Madrid.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Madrid win
48%
Actual ✓
Draw
23%
Internazionale win
29%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.94 – 1.47
Total 3.42
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.4 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 85%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 71%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 85% because Real Madrid's 1.94 xG and Internazionale's 1.47 xG combine for relentless attacking threat across the pitch."