FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Espanyol 1–2 Real MadridMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Espanyol at 25%, draw at 25%, Real Madrid at 49%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Real Madrid.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Espanyol win
25%
Draw
25%
Madrid win
49%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.18 – 1.73
Total 2.91
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
X2
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost