FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Espanyol 1–2 Real MadridMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Real Madrid or draw at 75%. Bawler had Espanyol at 25%, the draw at 25% and Real Madrid at 49%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Espanyol win
25%
Draw
25%
Real Madrid win
49%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.7
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 2.9
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Real Madrid or draw
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.