What we expect · full match
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
How to read this
The small bars under each number are that side’s most recent matches (up to six), home and away, against opponents of mixed strength, oldest on the left; the dashed line is the number we expect. Our forecast is for this opponent at this ground, so a favourite’s recent numbers often sit below it and an underdog’s above it.
Recent averages · last 6 matches
What each side has actually done lately, home and away — a record, not a forecast.
What we expect
In plain English
Paris FC are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have won four of their last six. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Paris FC or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Paris FC · last 6
Stade Rennais · last 6
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 75%
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Paris FC vs Stade Rennais?
Bawler's model rates this match: Paris FC are favoured (44% win probability vs 31% for Stade Rennais, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Paris FC vs Stade Rennais?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Paris FC 1-1 Stade Rennais (11.1% probability). Expected total goals: 3.2.
How does Bawler predict Paris FC vs Stade Rennais?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Paris FC 44%, the draw 25% and Stade Rennais 31%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Stade Rennais?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 63% chance. That is based on Paris FC expecting 1.73 goals and Stade Rennais 1.43.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Paris FC vs Stade Rennais?
Bawler's model expects 3.2 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 61%.