Nice vs Stade Rennais prediction — Ligue 1 · Fri 30 Oct · 18:00 UK

Ligue 1 · Fri 30 Oct · 18:00 UK

Nice

VersusStade Rennais

Nice 34Draw 24Stade Rennais 42

Stade Rennais or draw has moved from 65% to 66% over 7 days

The call

66%

Stade Rennais or draw

Calls on the result published at 60–70% have landed 68% of the time

190 of 278 settledFull record →

3.3

Goals expected

3d 05hUntil lineups lock

Overview1st half2nd halfFormPlayers

Team stats

What we expect from each side, next to how they have been doing lately.

Full matchFirst halfSecond halfNiceStade Rennais

IN SHORTStade Rennais are forecast to come out ahead on every measure here.

GoalsStade Rennais +0.2

1.5

Last 6 avg 1.3

▲ Forecast 0.2 above recent

2+ goals in 3 of 6

1.7

Last 6 avg 2.3

▼ Forecast 0.6 below recent

2+ goals in 5 of 6

ShotsStade Rennais +1.4

14.6

Last 6 avg 10.3

▲ Forecast 4.3 above recent

15+ shots in 0 of 6

16.1

Last 6 avg 17.0

▼ Forecast 0.9 below recent

16+ shots in 3 of 6

On targetStade Rennais +0.9

4.3

Last 6 avg 3.8

▲ Forecast 0.5 above recent

4+ on target in 4 of 6

5.2

Last 6 avg 6.7

▼ Forecast 1.4 below recent

5+ on target in 5 of 6

CornersStade Rennais +1.2

5.1

Last 6 avg 5.7

▼ Forecast 0.6 below recent

5+ corners in 4 of 6

6.2

Last 6 avg 7.3

▼ Forecast 1.1 below recent

6+ corners in 3 of 6

Goals

0.5

No recent record

2+ goals in 3 of 6

0.5

No recent record

2+ goals in 5 of 6

ShotsStade Rennais +0.7

6.7

No recent record

15+ shots in 0 of 6

7.3

No recent record

16+ shots in 3 of 6

On targetStade Rennais +0.4

1.9

No recent record

4+ on target in 4 of 6

2.4

No recent record

5+ on target in 5 of 6

CornersStade Rennais +0.6

2.4

No recent record

5+ corners in 4 of 6

2.9

No recent record

6+ corners in 3 of 6

GoalsStade Rennais +0.2

1.1

No recent record

2+ goals in 3 of 6

1.2

No recent record

2+ goals in 5 of 6

ShotsStade Rennais +0.8

8.0

No recent record

15+ shots in 0 of 6

8.7

No recent record

16+ shots in 3 of 6

On targetStade Rennais +0.5

2.4

No recent record

4+ on target in 4 of 6

2.9

No recent record

5+ on target in 5 of 6

CornersStade Rennais +0.6

2.7

No recent record

5+ corners in 4 of 6

3.3

No recent record

6+ corners in 3 of 6

Each card is drawn on one scale, so the two bars are directly comparable. “Above recent” means our forecast is higher than their average over the last six.

Match odds

How likely the big moments are, and what they add up to.

Goal before half-time

At least one goal in the first 45 minutes.

Both teams score

Each side finds the net at least once.

3 or more goals

Three or more goals in the match, from either side.

Key takeaways

FAVOURITES

Stade Rennais lead on every measure: goals (1.7 v 1.5), shots (16.1 v 14.6), on target (5.2 v 4.3).

OPEN GAME

Goals at both ends are likely: 65% both teams score, and 64% for three or more goals.

EARLY GOAL

Stade Rennais are likelier to score first half: 54% to score before half-time, against 50% for Nice. 77% that either side does.

FORM CHECK

Stade Rennais are forecast below recent form: 1.7 goals expected, against 2.3 on average over their last six.

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time. A longer bar means more likely.

6+ shots

60%

68%

8+ shots

36%

44%

1+ shots on target

82%

87%

3+ shots on target

31%

41%

2+ corners

64%

74%

4+ corners

24%

34%

Our numbers, most likely first

Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

Market	Probability	7-day change
Over 1.5 goals	84%	0
Stade Rennais to score	82%	0
Nice to score	79%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	64%	0

In plain English

Stade Rennais are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. Expect goals: the model sees around three.

What would change the call

Stade Rennais or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.

Nice lead 1–0 at half-time66% → 36%

Stade Rennais lead 1–0 at half-time66% → 91%

Goalless at half-time66% → 71%

Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.

Nice · last 6

Wat Brest2–19 shots

Lat Lyon1–212 shots

Wv Strasbourg2–111 shots

Wv Lille2–110 shots

Lat Auxerre0–112 shots

Dv Le Mans1–18 shots

Stade Rennais · last 6

Wv Strasbourg3–015 shots

Dat Juventus2–216 shots

Lat Paris FC3–412 shots

Wv OFI Crete2–125 shots

Wv Auxerre4–121 shots

Lat Lyon0–413 shots

First half — what we expect

Nice

50%

to score before half-time

Stade Rennais

54%

to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 77%

NiceStade Rennais

6.71st-half shots7.3

avg 3.3 · 3 away · 7+ in 0/6

avg 7.2 · 3 away · 7+ in 4/6

1.91st-half shots on target2.4

avg 1.0 · 3 away · 2+ in 1/6

avg 2.2 · 3 away · 2+ in 4/6

2.41st-half corners2.9

avg 1.7 · 3 away · 2+ in 2/6

avg 3.0 · 3 away · 3+ in 4/6

How the match splits

1st half2nd half

Shots · Nice6.78.0

Shots · Stade Rennais7.38.7

Shots on target · Nice1.92.4

Shots on target · Stade Rennais2.42.9

Corners · Nice2.42.7

Corners · Stade Rennais2.93.3

How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

Player forecasts

How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.

Based on counted shooting from the 2025/26 season in this competition.

Nice

1+ shot1+ on target2+ on target

Isak Jansson

FW · 2.5 shots expected

92%

73%

38%

Kevin Carlos

FW · 2.5 shots expected

91%

59%

23%

Sofiane Diop

MF · 2.2 shots expected

89%

47%

14%

Mohamed-Ali Cho

MF · 1.7 shots expected

81%

47%

13%

Tom Louchet

MF · 1.4 shots expected

76%

35%

Hicham Boudaoui

MF · 1.2 shots expected

69%

39%

Stade Rennais

1+ shot1+ on target2+ on target

Estéban Lepaul

FW · 3.1 shots expected

96%

75%

40%

Mousa Tamari

MF · 2.6 shots expected

93%

58%

21%

Ludovic Blas

MF · 2.6 shots expected

93%

53%

17%

Breel Embolo

FW · 2.4 shots expected

90%

62%

26%

Djaoui Cissé

MF · 2.1 shots expected

88%

41%

10%

Mahamadou Nagida

DF · 1.3 shots expected

72%

23%

These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.

Model inputs

Nice form (last 6)D L W W L W

Expected goals gap (home minus away)-0.2 / match

Stade Rennais in their league tableTop quarter

Build a combination on this match →

Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who will win Nice vs Stade Rennais?

Bawler's model rates this match: Stade Rennais are favoured (42% win probability vs 34% for Nice, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for Nice vs Stade Rennais?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Nice 1-1 Stade Rennais (10.6% probability). Expected total goals: 3.3.

How does Bawler predict Nice vs Stade Rennais?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Nice 34%, the draw 24% and Stade Rennais 42%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.