Panama vs Croatia
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 2.5 Goals at 72% probability looks strong because Croatia's 1.93 xG—nearly 2.5 times Panama's 0.79—suggests the visitors will dominate a low-possession affair.
Panama average 5.0 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches). Croatia average 3.5 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
More predictions for these teams
Panama vs Croatia — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Panama and Croatia — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Panama 13% · draw 26% · Croatia 61%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.