FT · France: Ligue 1 · Friday, 23 October 2026
Brest 1–2 NiceMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 23 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Brest or draw at 77%. Bawler had Brest at 53%, the draw at 24% and Nice at 23%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Brest win
53%
Draw
24%
Nice win
23%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.2
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (−0.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.5 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.0 of our 3.0.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Brest to win
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 81%, built on Brest's 0.69 expected-goal advantage and a combined xG total of 3.04 that suggests multiple scoring opportunities across both sides."