FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Lyon 2–1 NiceMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Lyon to win at 61%. Bawler had Lyon at 61%, the draw at 22% and Nice at 17%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lyon win
61%
Result
Draw
22%
Nice win
17%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.0
Total 3.0
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.0 of our 3.0.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Lyon to win
Pre-match: 61%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.