What we expect
In plain English
New England Revolution are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have won four of their last six. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
New England Revolution or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders FC?
Bawler's model rates this match: New England Revolution are favoured (45% win probability vs 30% for Seattle Sounders FC, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders FC?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is New England Revolution 1-1 Seattle Sounders FC (11.5% probability). Expected total goals: 3.04.
How does Bawler predict New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders FC?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives New England Revolution 45%, the draw 25% and Seattle Sounders FC 30%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders FC?
BTTS: Yes (60% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.70 and away expected goals 1.34.
Over or under 2.5 goals in New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders FC?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.04. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).