FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 15 October 2026
FC Dallas 1–0 Seattle Sounders FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Dallas or draw at 68%. Bawler had FC Dallas at 42%, the draw at 26% and Seattle Sounders FC at 32%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Dallas win
42%
Result
Draw
26%
Seattle Sounders FC win
32%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.4
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.