Match prediction·EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification·Tuesday 11 Aug, 17:30 UTC

NEC Nijmegen vs Olympiacos

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
54.8% home27.1% draw18.1% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
NEC NijmegenstepOlympiacos
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Nijmegen average 6.8 corners per game at home this season (18 competitive matches). Olympiacos average 4.8 corners per game away from home this season (5 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
77%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Over 3.5 goals
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Nijmegen vs Olympiacos — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 4 August 2026, Nijmegen have won 0, Olympiacos have won 0, with 1 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
4 August 2026Olympiacos 00 NijmegenEurope: Champions League - Qualification

The model's verdict for this fixture: Nijmegen 55% · draw 27% · Olympiacos 18%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.