Match prediction·SCOTLAND: Premiership·Sunday 09 Aug, 14:00 UTC

Motherwell vs Falkirk

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
53.6% home30.4% draw16.0% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
MotherwellstepFalkirk
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Motherwell average 3.8 corners per game at home this season (20 competitive matches). Falkirk average 5.0 corners per game away from home this season (19 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Motherwell or draw
76%
Falkirk or draw
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Motherwell vs Falkirk — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Motherwell and Falkirk — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Motherwell 54% · draw 30% · Falkirk 16%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Motherwell 00 Falkirk
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.