FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Celtic 2–1 FalkirkMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Celtic at 71%, draw at 18%, Falkirk at 11%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Celtic.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Celtic win
71%
Actual ✓
Draw
18%
Falkirk win
11%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.40 – 0.86
Total 3.26
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 71%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 37%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Celtic's home advantage combines with a dominant 1.54 expected-goals edge to make a Home Win the high-confidence forecast at 71% probability."