FT · SCOTLAND: Premiership · Wednesday, 02 September 2026
Falkirk 1–2 RangersMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 02 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Falkirk at 27%, draw at 25%, Rangers at 48%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Rangers.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Falkirk win
27%
Draw
25%
Rangers win
48%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.25 – 1.73
Total 2.98
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.0 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.0 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
X2
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 35%
✗ Lost