FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 06 August 2026
HJK Helsinki 1–1 MotherwellMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 06 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had HJK Helsinki at 40%, draw at 28%, Motherwell at 32%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was HJK Helsinki to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Helsinki win
40%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
Motherwell win
32%
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
HJK Helsinki or Draw
Pre-match: 68%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✓ Won