Match prediction·PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal·Sunday 09 Aug, 19:30 UTC

Moreirense vs Braga

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
32.7% home34.3% draw33.0% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
MoreirensestepBraga
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Moreirense average 4.0 corners per game at home this season (18 competitive matches). Braga average 5.0 corners per game away from home this season (25 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
72%
Not both teams to score
51%
Braga to win
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Moreirense vs Braga — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Moreirense and Braga — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Moreirense 33% · draw 34% · Braga 33%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Moreirense 22 Braga
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.