Match prediction·USA: MLS·Sunday 02 Aug, 00:30 UTC

Minnesota United FC vs San Diego FC

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Minnesota's 0.72 xG edge and 78% Over 1.5 Goals probability signal a mismatch in attacking threat that should deliver goals.

📊 Win probability
51.2% home27.4% draw21.5% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Minnesota United FCstepSan Diego FC
1.69Base xG · rolling 26-match1.27
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.91Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.19

Minnesota United average 5.2 corners per game at home this season (27 competitive matches). San Diego average 4.0 corners per game away from home this season (22 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
5
3
1
1
9
10
6
2
1
2
8
10
6
2
1
3
5
6
4
1
4
2
3
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
78%
Over 3.5 goals
26%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Minnesota United vs San Diego — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Minnesota United and San Diego — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Minnesota United 51% · draw 27% · San Diego 21%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Minnesota United FC 11 San Diego FC
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.