FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 08 November 2026
Lens 1–2 MarseilleMatch recap · Sunday, 08 November 2026
How Bawler's pick did
Bawler's pickLost
Lens or Draw✗
Lens Over 11.5 Shots✓
Florian Thauvin 2+ Shots✓
Logged before kickoff, settled from the final stats. Bawler's pick record →
Pre-match probability vs result
Lens win
49%
Draw
22%
Marseille win
29%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.6
Total 3.6
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (−0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 2.2
From the match itself
The match produced 0.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.