Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelManchester United on top, and Matheus Cunha getting plenty of shots away.
Manchester United v Brentford prediction
Manchester United are favourites on our numbers: 46% to win, against 30% for Brentford and 24% for a draw. Our predicted score is Manchester United 2–1 Brentford: the most likely score if Manchester United win, at 9%. Manchester United are expected to score 1.8 goals and Brentford 1.4, 3.3 between them. Both sides are more likely than not to score (64%) and three or more goals is 63%.
We expect Manchester United to have 18.2 shots (6.1 on target) and Brentford 10.6 (3.7 on target), and corners at 5.7 to 4.3. That points to Manchester United doing more of the attacking. Of their last five meetings on our records, Manchester United and Brentford have two wins each, with one draw. The last meeting ended Manchester United 2–1 Brentford, in Apr 2026.
In their last six games Manchester United have one win, two draws and three defeats, while Brentford have one win, two draws and three defeats. Manchester United drew their most recent match and Brentford lost theirs. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Manchester United or Draw, Manchester United Over 13.5 Shots and Matheus Cunha 2+ Shots. The chance all three land is 44% on our numbers, so the fair price is 5/4, or 2.26.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Manchester United · last 6
Brentford · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Manchester United or draw is 70% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Premier League table →Common questions
Who will win Manchester United vs Brentford?
Bawler's model rates this match: Manchester United are favoured (46% win probability vs 30% for Brentford, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Manchester United vs Brentford?
Bawler's predicted score is Manchester United 2-1 Brentford: the most likely score if Manchester United win, which is the likeliest result (46%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.1%. Expected total goals: 3.3.
How does Bawler predict Manchester United vs Brentford?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Manchester United 46%, the draw 24% and Brentford 30%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Manchester United vs Brentford?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 64% chance. That is based on Manchester United expecting 1.83 goals and Brentford 1.43.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Manchester United vs Brentford?
Bawler's model expects 3.3 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 63%.
When are the Manchester United v Brentford line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Manchester United v Brentford?
Manchester United or Draw (70%), Manchester United Over 13.5 Shots (81%), Matheus Cunha 2+ Shots (71%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 44% chance, a fair price of 5/4 (2.26). 18+, please gamble responsibly.