FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 08 November 2026
Manchester United 4–4 Aston VillaMatch recap · Sunday, 08 November 2026
How Bawler's pick did
Bawler's pickWon
Manchester United or Draw✓
Manchester United Over 14.5 Shots✓
Matheus Cunha 2+ Shots✓
Logged before kickoff, settled from the final stats. Bawler's pick record →
Pre-match probability vs result
Manchester United win
48%
Draw
25%
Result
Aston Villa win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.3
Total 3.1
Actual
4 – 4
Total 8 (+4.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.6 – 2.9
From the match itself
The match produced 4.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.