How it finished
Eintracht Frankfurt beat Mainz 3–1. Bawler's model favoured Mainz at 53% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Eintracht Frankfurt 23%. It forecast 3.1 goals; the match produced 4. Mainz had 18 shots (5 on target) to Eintracht Frankfurt's 11 (5), with 55% of the ball against 45%. Expected goals finished 2.1 to 2.1.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 79%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Mainz vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt beat Mainz 3–1. Bawler's model favoured Mainz at 53% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Eintracht Frankfurt 23%. It forecast 3.1 goals; the match produced 4. Mainz had 18 shots (5 on target) to Eintracht Frankfurt's 11 (5), with 55% of the ball against 45%. Expected goals finished 2.1 to 2.1.
What was the final score in Mainz vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Mainz 1–3 Eintracht Frankfurt, played on 12 Sept 2026 in the Germany: Bundesliga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Mainz 53%, the draw 24% and Eintracht Frankfurt 23%.
What were the stats in Mainz vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Full-time: Possession 55%–45%, Expected goals (xG) 2.1–2.1, Shots 18–11, Shots on target 5–5, Shots inside box 11–9, Big chances 3–3, Corners 4–5, Saves 2–4, Fouls 11–9, Offsides 1–3, Yellow cards 0–2.
Did both teams score in Mainz vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — both Mainz and Eintracht Frankfurt scored, finishing 1–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 60% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Mainz vs Eintracht Frankfurt right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Mainz or draw 77%, it finished Eintracht Frankfurt won (23% called); Total goals — we said 3.1, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 60%, it finished Yes.