What we expect · full match
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
How to read this
The small bars under each number are that side’s last six matches, home and away, against opponents of mixed strength, oldest on the left; the dashed line is the number we expect. Our forecast is for this opponent at this ground, so a favourite’s recent numbers often sit below it and an underdog’s above it.
Recent averages · last 6 matches
What each side has actually done lately, home and away — a record, not a forecast.
What we expect
In plain English
Eintracht Frankfurt should get at least a draw here. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than FC Cologne. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
Eintracht Frankfurt or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Eintracht Frankfurt · last 6
FC Cologne · last 6
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 79%
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne?
Bawler's model rates this match: Eintracht Frankfurt are favoured (58% win probability vs 21% for FC Cologne, 21% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1 FC Cologne (9.4% probability). Expected total goals: 3.5.
How does Bawler predict Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Eintracht Frankfurt 58%, the draw 21% and FC Cologne 21%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne?
BTTS: Yes (64% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.21 and away expected goals 1.28.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.5. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).