Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelMainz on top, and Phillip Tietz getting plenty of shots away.
Mainz v 1. FC Union Berlin prediction
Our model makes Mainz favourites for this Bundesliga game, giving them a 55% chance of winning. 1. FC Union Berlin are 22% and the draw is 23%. Our predicted score is Mainz 2–1 1. FC Union Berlin: the most likely score if Mainz win, at 10%. Mainz are expected to score 2.0 goals and 1. FC Union Berlin 1.2, 3.1 between them. Both sides are more likely than not to score (59%) and three or more goals is 60%.
On form, Mainz have one win, no draws and five defeats from their last six games, and 1. FC Union Berlin have one win, three draws and two defeats. Of their last five meetings on our records, Mainz have won none, 1. FC Union Berlin two, and three were drawn. The last meeting ended Mainz 05 1–3 Union Berlin, in May 2026.
We expect Mainz to have 17.9 shots (6.2 on target) and 1. FC Union Berlin 11.2 (3.4 on target), and corners at 6.5 to 3.5. That points to Mainz doing more of the attacking. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Mainz or Draw, Mainz Over 13.5 Shots and Phillip Tietz 2+ Shots. The chance all three land is 52% on our numbers, so the fair price is 10/11, or 1.93.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Mainz · last 6
1. FC Union Berlin · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Mainz or draw is 78% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Bundesliga table →Common questions
Who will win Mainz vs 1. FC Union Berlin?
Bawler's model rates this match: Mainz are favoured (55% win probability vs 22% for 1. FC Union Berlin, 23% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Mainz vs 1. FC Union Berlin?
Bawler's predicted score is Mainz 2-1 1. FC Union Berlin: the most likely score if Mainz win, which is the likeliest result (55%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.7%. Expected total goals: 3.1.
How does Bawler predict Mainz vs 1. FC Union Berlin?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Mainz 55%, the draw 23% and 1. FC Union Berlin 22%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Mainz vs 1. FC Union Berlin?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 59% chance. That is based on Mainz expecting 1.95 goals and 1. FC Union Berlin 1.16.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Mainz vs 1. FC Union Berlin?
Bawler's model expects 3.1 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 60%.
When are the Mainz v 1. FC Union Berlin line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Mainz v 1. FC Union Berlin?
Mainz or Draw (78%), Mainz Over 13.5 Shots (79%), Phillip Tietz 2+ Shots (77%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 52% chance, a fair price of 10/11 (1.93). 18+, please gamble responsibly.