Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelAn open game: both sides to score, with Michael Gregoritsch and Phillip Tietz both getting shots away.
FC Augsburg v Mainz prediction
FC Augsburg are favourites on our numbers: 42% to win, against 35% for Mainz and 22% for a draw. Our predicted score is FC Augsburg 2–1 Mainz: the most likely score if FC Augsburg win, at 8%. We expect 3.7 goals in total: 2.0 for FC Augsburg and 1.8 for Mainz. Both teams scoring is 71% and three or more goals is 72%.
For cards, Phillipp Mwene (Mainz) has been booked once every 2 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here. On form, FC Augsburg have one win, two draws and three defeats from their last six games, and Mainz have one win, no draws and five defeats.
On shots, our forecast is 14.7 for FC Augsburg and 13.8 for Mainz, with 5.2 and 4.3 on target, and corners at 4.7 to 5.1. Bawler's pick for this game is Both Teams to Score, Over 23.5 Total Shots, Michael Gregoritsch 1+ Shot and Phillip Tietz 1+ Shot. Our model gives all four landing together a 57% chance, which makes the fair price 8/11 (1.74).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
FC Augsburg · last 6
Mainz · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
FC Augsburg or draw is 65% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Bundesliga table →Common questions
Who will win FC Augsburg vs Mainz?
Bawler's model rates this match: FC Augsburg are favoured (42% win probability vs 35% for Mainz, 22% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for FC Augsburg vs Mainz?
Bawler's predicted score is FC Augsburg 2-1 Mainz: the most likely score if FC Augsburg win, which is the likeliest result (42%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.0%. Expected total goals: 3.7.
How does Bawler predict FC Augsburg vs Mainz?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives FC Augsburg 42%, the draw 22% and Mainz 35%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Mainz?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 71% chance. That is based on FC Augsburg expecting 1.96 goals and Mainz 1.78.
Over or under 2.5 goals in FC Augsburg vs Mainz?
Bawler's model expects 3.7 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 72%.
When are the FC Augsburg v Mainz line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for FC Augsburg v Mainz?
Both Teams to Score (71%), Over 23.5 Total Shots (80%), Michael Gregoritsch 1+ Shot (89%), Phillip Tietz 1+ Shot (90%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 57% chance, a fair price of 8/11 (1.74). 18+, please gamble responsibly.