FT · France: Ligue 1 · Monday, 26 October 2026
Paris Saint-Germain 2–0 LyonMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 26 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Paris Saint-Germain to win at 65%. Bawler had Paris Saint-Germain at 65%, the draw at 20% and Lyon at 15%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Paris Saint-Germain win
65%
Result
Draw
20%
Lyon win
15%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.3 – 1.0
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Paris Saint-Germain to win
Pre-match: 65%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Paris Saint-Germain's home win stands as the high-confidence forecast at 65%, built on a 1.26 xG advantage and Dembélé's 22% team-shot creation against Lyon's anemic 1.00 expected-goals output."