FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Brest 5–1 AngersMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Brest or draw at 79%. Bawler had Brest at 54%, the draw at 25% and Angers at 21%. The match finished 5–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Brest win
54%
Result
Draw
25%
Angers win
21%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.0
Total 2.8
Actual
5 – 1
Total 6 (+3.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.7 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 3.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Brest or draw
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.