Lazio vs Genoa prediction — Serie A · Sun 30 Aug · 19:45 UK

Serie A · Sun 30 Aug · 19:45 UK
Lazio 43Draw 28Genoa 29
The call
71%
Over 1.5 goals
2.5
Goals expected
Full time
Final 1–0

How it finished

Lazio beat Genoa 1–0. Bawler's model had Lazio in front at 43% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.5 goals; only 1 was scored. Lazio had 15 shots (2 on target) to Genoa's 8 (1), with 46% of the ball against 54%. Expected goals finished 1.6 to 0.6.

LazioFull-time statsGenoa
46%Possession54%
1.6Expected goals (xG)0.6
15Shots8
2Shots on target1
8Shots inside box5
4Big chances2
4Corners2
1Saves1
18Fouls6
0Offsides2
1Yellow cards2
What we publishedBeforeAfter
ResultLazio 43%Lazio (43% called)
Total goals2.51
Both teams to score50%No
Model callOver 1.5 Goals 71%Missed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

MarketProbability
Under 3.5 goals76%
Lazio to score75%
Over 1.5 goals71%
Genoa to score67%

First half — what we expected

LazioBefore half-timeGenoa
46%Chance to score37%
5.6Expected shots5.6
2.0Expected shots on target2.2
2.4Expected corners1.8
64%Chance of 5+ shots64%
33%Chance of 7+ shots34%
65%Chance of 1+ shots on target65%
31%Chance of 3+ shots on target38%
89%Chance of 1+ corners81%
42%Chance of 3+ corners27%

Chance of at least one first-half goal: 66%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)+0.3 / match
Head-to-head, last 5LAZ 5 · D 0 · GEN 0
Opponent strength indexBottom quartile

Head to head

Jan 2026Lazio 3–2 Genoa
Sept 2025Genoa 0–3 Lazio
Apr 2025Genoa 0–2 Lazio
Oct 2024Lazio 3–0 Genoa
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Lazio vs Genoa?

Lazio beat Genoa 1–0. Bawler's model had Lazio in front at 43% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.5 goals; only 1 was scored. Lazio had 15 shots (2 on target) to Genoa's 8 (1), with 46% of the ball against 54%. Expected goals finished 1.6 to 0.6.

What was the final score in Lazio vs Genoa?

Lazio 1–0 Genoa, played on 30 Aug 2026 in the ITALY: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Lazio 43%, the draw 28% and Genoa 29%.

What were the stats in Lazio vs Genoa?

Full-time: Possession 46%–54%, Expected goals (xG) 1.6–0.6, Shots 15–8, Shots on target 2–1, Shots inside box 8–5, Big chances 4–2, Corners 4–2, Saves 1–1, Fouls 18–6, Offsides 0–2, Yellow cards 1–2.

Did both teams score in Lazio vs Genoa?

No. It finished 1–0, so Genoa failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 50% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Lazio vs Genoa right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said Lazio 43%, it finished Lazio (43% called); Total goals — we said 2.5, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 50%, it finished No; Model call — we said Over 1.5 Goals 71%, it finished Missed.

Around this fixture

Serie A table →
All fixtures & results →Lazio form →Genoa form →