LA Galaxy and Seattle Sounders FC drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Seattle Sounders FC at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 3.1 goals; only 2 were scored. LA Galaxy had 18 shots (5 on target) to Seattle Sounders FC's 17 (8), with 48% of the ball against 52%. Expected goals finished 1.9 to 1.7.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 78%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
LA Galaxy and Seattle Sounders FC drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Seattle Sounders FC at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 3.1 goals; only 2 were scored. LA Galaxy had 18 shots (5 on target) to Seattle Sounders FC's 17 (8), with 48% of the ball against 52%. Expected goals finished 1.9 to 1.7.
LA Galaxy 1–1 Seattle Sounders FC, played on 13 Sept 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with LA Galaxy 36%, the draw 25% and Seattle Sounders FC 39%.
Full-time: Possession 48%–52%, Expected goals (xG) 1.9–1.7, Shots 18–17, Shots on target 5–8, Shots inside box 11–12, Big chances 1–1, Corners 5–3, Saves 7–4, Fouls 9–15, Offsides 1–2, Yellow cards 0–2.
Yes — both LA Galaxy and Seattle Sounders FC scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 61% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Seattle Sounders FC or draw 64%, it finished Draw (25% called); Total goals — we said 3.1, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 61%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 81%, it finished Landed.