Bawler's model rates this match: Kocaelispor are favoured (40% win probability vs 32% for Amed SFK, 28% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Kocaelispor 1-1 Amed SFK (13.3% probability). Expected total goals: 2.50.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Kocaelispor 40%, the draw 28% and Amed SFK 32%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: Yes (51% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.33 and away expected goals 1.17.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.50. The lean is Under 2.5 (likely a tighter affair).