BAWLER
Bawler / Kasimpasa vs Amed SFK / Recap
FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 06 September 2026

Kasimpasa 2–2 Amed SFKMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 06 September 2026

Kasimpasa
2–2
Draw
Amed SFK
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Kasimpasa at 34%, draw at 28%, Amed SFK at 38%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Amed SFK to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Kasimpasa win
34%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
SFK win
38%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.27 – 1.37
Total 2.64
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.4 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 74% as both sides combine for 2.64 expected goals, with Amed's marginal 1.37 xG edge offsetting Kasimpasa's home advantage in a fixture the model sees as genuinely competitive."

> More from Bawler