FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Amed SFK 5–0 Istanbul BasaksehirMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Amed SFK at 38%, draw at 25%, Istanbul Basaksehir at 37%. The match ended 5-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Amed SFK.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SFK win
38%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Basaksehir win
37%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.55 – 1.53
Total 3.08
Actual
5 – 0
Total 5 (+1.9 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.9 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals forecasts at 81% because Amed and Basaksehir project near-identical attacking threat at 1.55 and 1.53 xG, creating the offensive balance needed for a multi-goal outcome."